Captain Marvel is headed toward one of the best opening weekends for a solo franchise debut film in Marvel Studios history. The film arrived on industry tracking boards today and appears set for $100M+ in its first three days in North America.
It does not appear Captain Marvel will challenge Black Panther ($202M) for Marvel’s best solo franchise debut. It could, however, beat Iron Man ($98.6M) for second place. I’m removing Spider-Man: Homecoming ($117M) from this category because the franchise already had five solo outings before its first under the Marvel Studios banner.
Industry tracking has come in well below Box Office Pro‘s long-range projections of over $140M last month. As we always note, those projections are based on Box Office Pro‘s own models. What we have today is the industry tracking that studios and trade publications have been using for many years.
The results are based on surveys of actual moviegoers to gauge their awareness of a film and whether or not it is their first choice out of all the movies they could see. The point here is that Captain Marvel‘s tracking isn’t trending downward. It couldn’t because it only just started.
Box Office Pro may not be wrong in the end. When Black Panther first arrived on the tracking boards last year, the film was supposedly headed for an opening weekend between $100M and $120M. Those numbers continued to trend upward until tracking pointed to $165M just days before the film was released. Then, Black Panther blew away all industry projections by opening at $202M.
Captain Marvel may also soar over its initial tracking, though it won’t need to in order to qualify as a massive success. Black Panther is the only Marvel Studios solo franchise debut to even reach $100M in its opening weekend and most of the others never even came close. Anything in the neighborhood of $100M would be a huge win for Captain Marvel.
Of course, if the reviews are good and momentum builds, Captain Marvel could still enjoy an even bigger victory than tracking suggests.
Captain Marvel is in theaters March 8 and you can order your tickets here!
SOURCE: The Hollywood Reporter